ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA – The Indonesian economy has the potential to experience paralysis due to the climate crisis.
This is because the Indonesian economy is among the most vulnerable to climate change. Low-income households and marginalized groups will be more victims.
This is reflected in the report on the synthesis of the impacts of the climate crisis in all key sectors in Indonesia, which was launched by Koaksi Indonesia and Yayasan Indonesia CERAH.
“From this report, we would like to convey that Indonesia still has the opportunity to take more ambitious climate action before the impact of climate change worsens on strategic sectors in Indonesia, such as food, infrastructure, economy, and labor,” said Verena Puspawardani, Director of the Indonesian Coaction Program, Wednesday (28/9/2022).
A study in 2021 stated that by 2050 Indonesia could lose 30-40% of its gross domestic product (GDP) if it was at moderate to high emission levels. In fact, Indonesia can “only” lose a maximum of 4% of GDP if it is able to keep the temperature well below 2°C.
The research is in line with findings from 2015 which revealed that in a high emission scenario, Indonesia’s GDP could fall by 31% by mid-century, and plunge by up to 78% by the end of the century (2100).
There is more research highlighting the enormous impact of global warming on the Indonesian economy unless emissions are cut as soon as possible. Diffenbaugh and Burke in 2019 stated, “Indonesia’s GDP per capita may already be 15% lower than it could have been without human-caused warming since 1991.”
Affected Agriculture and Infrastructure
Extreme heat is one of the very real impacts of the climate crisis in Indonesia. This heat reduces crop and food yields in Indonesia, as stated in Kinose’s 2020 research. In the high-emission scenario, according to this study, Java Island and the northern region of Sumatra will experience a 20-40% reduction in rice harvests in 2040.
Another 2018 study said that rising temperatures had a direct impact on the decline in cocoa harvests in Indonesia. If the temperature reaches 27-27.5°C, the yield will drop 67% and often even reach zero. Apart from cocoa, rice and coffee will also be affected by rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall.
According to Azis Kurniawan, Research and Development Manager of Coaksi Indonesia, “The compilation of data and projections from these various reports can be the basis for joint climate action by various parties, especially the government, the private sector, and civil society, so that Indonesia’s development targets towards a green economy are achieved. can be achieved.”
The impact of the climate crisis is also experienced by the infrastructure sector. Stone research in 2021 shows that increased heat will make the demand for air conditioners greater, meaning that it will increase the burden on the power grid.
Disruption to the cooling service provider’s electrical network during a heat wave can cause fatalities. A number of studies have also revealed that extreme heat will reduce the function of thermal power plants, thereby disrupting electricity supply.
Furthermore, according to Dobney’s 2008 study, train tracks can warp and break if the temperature exceeds their design. Not only that, research Smoyer-Tomic and team in 2003 said, high temperatures can cause the roads to melt and stick to vehicle tires.
The effectiveness of cooling the vehicle’s engine will also decrease and increase the likelihood of a tire burst, meaning a higher chance of an accident.
“The various evidences of the potential impact of the heat on infrastructure raise the question: has our infrastructure development planning taken into account the potential impacts of the climate crisis? If we take into account the potential impact, we can significantly save the state budget through the transition from high-emissions economic activities to a green economy,” said Wira Dillon, a senior researcher at the CERAH Indonesia Foundation. (ATN)